Higher projected GDP growth won't have "material" impact on bank sector - Fitch

Friday, July 9, 2010

The IMF's revised growth forecast for the Mexican economy is within the expectations of private sector observers and will "not have a material impact on the outlook for the [financial services] sector," Fitch Mexico analyst Alejandro Garcia told BNamericas.

On Thursday (July 8), IMF revised its 2010 growth projections for Mexican GDP upward 30 basis points from its April projection, to 4.5%. Garcia said Fitch was already projecting real growth of 4-4.5%. Other private sector observers have maintained similarly higher 2010 GDP growth targets, including Citigroup's (NYSE: C) Banamex, whose research unit is projecting 4.4% GDP growth for 2010.

Garcia said Fitch is expecting loan growth rate of roughly three times GDP growth, putting it at 10-15% for 2010.

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"The slowly improving economic environment will continue to underpin gradual improvements in loan growth and banking system performance, as revenues and business volumes continue recovering," Garcia said. "But this will be at a moderate pace, not a sudden and/or sharp increase over the near term."