Macro Watch: Mexico, Chile, Ecuador

Thursday, December 7, 2017

Mexican inflation fails to recede in November

Mexican monthly CPI jumped 1.03% in November largely driven by the annual end of electricity subsidies, in line with expectations.

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However, core inflation was stronger than forecast, and the overall result adds pressure on the central bank to raise rates once again at its December 14 meeting.

Annual CPI in November reached 6.63%, again near record territory.

Citibanamex said inflationary pressures appeared to be receding in the second half of November and reiterated its forecast of 6.4% inflation at the end of the year.

It said the 1.03% monthly rate was "slightly above" the 1.01% the bank expected and in line with the consensus estimate in its most recent private sector survey.

The bank noted that almost half of the inflation accumulated in November was tied to the end of electricity subsidies last month; however, core monthly inflation at 0.34% was higher than expected.

Chile CPI

Monthly inflation in Chile was 0.1% in November, in line with analyst forecasts and bringing annual inflation to 1.9%, statistics agency INE said. Driving inflation last month were food and non-alcoholic beverages, and recreation and culture. The central bank's target range is 2-4%.

Inflation in Chile was 0.6% in October, above consensus expectations.

Ecuador GDP forecast

Ecuador's central bank has revised up the country's growth forecast for this year to 1.5%.

Around the middle of the year the bank was expecting the economy to grow at a pace of 0.71%, state news service Andes reported.

Growth of 2.0% is forecast for 2018. The bank cited a forecast uptick in investment, particularly in mining and construction.