Macri consolidates power, beats back populist specter

President Mauricio Macri got everything he wanted, and then some, in Argentina's key legislative elections Sunday, which reassured investors fearful of a return to populist policies, while significantly increasing the likelihood of success for his center-right administration and 2019 reelection campaign.

While Macri was not on the ballot, the midterm vote to choose 127 lower house lawmakers (half of the chamber) and 24 senators (one third) had been billed as a referendum on his administration and a harbinger of the 2019 presidential race.

And because ex-president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) was on the senatorial ballot in Buenos Aires province, investors and analysts were looking to see whether the general population would punish the administration's pro-business, pro-reform policies – considering that inflation, joblessness and poverty are still huge problems in this country of around 44mn people.

But in a performance that built on the August primaries, the ruling Cambiemos coalition won decisive victories in 13 out of 24 voting districts, including the big five population centers: the capital of Buenos Aires and the provinces of Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Santa Fe and Mendoza. No other party had won all five districts in the midterms since 1985.

With a 78% voter turnout, Cambiemos gained 21 seats in the 257-member lower house, where it will have 107 representatives starting on December 10. In the senate, the ruling coalition will have 24 senators, compared with the current 15, out of 72 seats.

Perhaps as important as Cambiemos' congressional gains was the resounding defeat suffered by Macri's predecessor. CFK came in a distant second in her race against Macri's former education minister Esteban Bullrich in a district home to almost 40% of the nation's voters. Because the top three candidates reach the senate, CFK will try to helm the government's opposition in the upper house – but any chances of her returning to the Rosada presidential palace in 2019 were all but dashed by the outcome in the traditional Peronist stronghold of Buenos Aires province.

"Today the winner was the certainty that we can change history forever," said Macri at the Cambiemos headquarters (pictured), where he danced on stage with key members of his team such as Buenos Aires governor María Eugenia Vidal.

The momentum enjoyed by Cambiemos was also evident in the western province of La Rioja, home of former president and incumbent senator Carlos Menem. The 87-year-old Peronist caudillo suffered a historic loss to Cambiemos candidate Julio Martínez.

In an ironic twist, Santa Cruz province – where CFK and her late husband Néstor Kirchner built their political empire – also flipped and went to Cambiemos. Governor Alicia Kirchner, the elder sister of Néstor, was met by insults and cries of "thief" when she went to cast her ballot.

CKF and her allies lost 10 lower house and eight senate seats; she'll now control 67 and 10 votes, respectively.

Overall, the midterm vote was considered the worst electoral defeat suffered by the Peronist party since the country's return to democracy in 1983. Along with CFK – who was running under her own Unidad Ciudadana party, under the Peronist umbrella – other party losers were Salta governor Juan Manuel Urtubey, a presidential hopeful until his candidates failed to secure the most votes in this northwestern province.

Most analysts agree that, since the 2015 elections were won by Macri, the Peronists have remained divided between CFK loyalists and critics of the Kirchners' 12-year rule.

"You're responsible for the opposition being fragmented," Florencio Randazzo, transport minister under CFK, told his former boss in September after she refused to face him in the primaries, choosing instead to run independently under Unidad Ciudadana.

The division has strengthened the government's hand. It is no coincidence that Macri and his team brought up CFK repeatedly in the lead-up to Sunday's vote, citing the corruption and conflict of her two terms in office.

Now the government will not waste time in pushing for labor reform and other policies that have been resisted by labor unions. This week, Macri will meet with governors to discuss fiscal reform and the budget. With CFK defeated and no party having an outright majority in congress, however, the question remains who the next boogeyman will be if Macri's team does not come through on its promises to make life substantially better for the lower-income and middle classes.