Peru central bank cuts hydrocarbons growth forecast

Monday, December 17, 2012

Peru's central bank has lowered its 2013 hydrocarbons sector GDP growth forecast to 9.4% from 18.6%.

The cut is due to the reprogramming of hydrocarbons transport TGP's Loop Sur project to 2015, the bank said in its latest inflation report. The project aims to increase daily transport capacity by 30,000b and 120Mf3 (3.4Mm3).

Natural gas accounts for 42% or 2.98GW of effective power generation capacity on the national SEIN grid of which 37% comes from Camisea natural gas-fired plants and 5% from other gas-fired plants, highlights the document. Hydro accounts for 45% (3.17GW), oil 8% (586MW), renewables 3% (213MW) and coal 2% (141MW).

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The report adds that Camisea-fired power plants are operating on average at 70% capacity due to gas transport capacity restrictions, and that a Camisea interruption during the next two years, in absence of policy measures, would imply rationing.

The central bank points out the SEIN will see the addition of 400MW hydro and 1.63GW thermo in 2013-14.

Hydro Huanza (90MW) is due online next year along with 117MW from hydros under 20MW, and in 2014, hydros Machupicchu II (101MW) and Quitaracsa (112MW) along with 20MW from hydros under 20MW. Thermo additions next year include Fenix (521MW), Talara cold reserve (183MW), Chilca I (268MW) and Ilo cold reserve (460MW), and in 2014, Etén cold reserve (200MW).


Private hydrocarbons and power investment in Peru in 2013-14 reaches US$4.47bn and US$3.78bn; total private investment in the period hits US$31.1bn, said the report.

Principal hydrocarbons project announcements come from Pluspetrol (expansion Pisco, Malvinas plants; blocks 56, 88), Savia (block Z-2B), Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) (blocks 58, X), TGP (natural gas transport expansion), Cálidda (natural gas distribution expansion), Perenco (block 67, oil pipeline), SK Energy (block Z-46) and Repsol (NYSE: REP) (block 57, Kinteroni).

The main power project announcements come from Odebrecht (Cerro de Chaglla hydro), Inkia Energy (Cerro del Águila hydro), Norwind (Cerro Chocán wind farm), SN Power (Cheves hydro), Fénix Power (thermo plant), Energía Azul (Santa María hydro), Solarpack and T-Solar (photovoltaic plants), GDF Suez (Quitaracsa hydro), Ilnevarante (hydros Acco, Pucará) and Energía Eólica (Cupisnique wind farm).

The 118-page central bank document in Spanish is available here