Latin America's contribution to global growth will rise in 2013

Monday, January 14, 2013

With GDP growth forecast at 3.5% for 2013, up from 2.7% last year, Latin America's contribution to global growth will rise to 9% this year from the 8.4% average in 2009-11, Deutsche Bank said in a report.

The investment bank is forecasting the region to show strong and stable growth generally this year thanks to supportive demographics and balanced fiscal policies.

But while Chile, Colombia and Peru will continue to deliver stable growth, Brazil's growth will remain disappointing unless more effective steps to boost investment and competitiveness are taken.

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As for Argentina and Venezuela, Deutsche Bank is forecasting more of the same in 2013: high inflation, loose policies, political risk and social unrest.

The investment bank is also projecting the region's GDP growth to accelerate to 3.9% in 2014.


Even though the share of global GDP in developed markets (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs) is broadly balanced (52% compared to 48%), the latter will remain the engine for growth in 2013, Deutsche Bank said.

At 5.4%, over 80% of global growth in 2013 will come from EMs, with 62% from EM Asia alone (39% from China and 5% from India).

In turn, the CEEMEA region (Central Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa), will expand 3.5% this year, thus accounting for 12% of global growth.

In DMs, only the US will make a significant contribution. Deutsche Bank is forecasting DMs and US growth at 1% and 2%, respectively, in 2013.

The investment bank is forecasting global growth of 3.2% for this year compared to 2.9% in 2012.

"2013 will likely mark the dawn of the post-crisis era," the report reads.

"While structural long-term issues such as high debts across the developed world and unbalanced growth models in emerging economies remain unsettled, 2013 could be a year of stabilization after years of crisis-fighting. Supporting this view is the fact that global growth appears to be bottoming out and looks set to begin a slow ascent back to trend levels in the second half of 2013."

And while a return to stronger growth in US and Europe will increase DMs' contribution, EMs will still account for around 75% of growth in 2014, according to Deutsche Bank.