It is still too early to determine if the fluctuations in the US dollar-Mexican peso exchange rate will have a positive or negative impact on President Felipe Calderón's US$50bn/y, 2007-12 national infrastructure plan PNI, an analyst with local financial group Vector, Carlos Hermosillo told BNamericas.
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The global financial crisis has affected US dollar-denominated budgets in key infrastructure projects contemplated in the PNI, such as the 50bn-peso (US$4.08bn) Punta Colonet multimodal project in Baja California state.
Due to exchange rate fluctuations, the project's budget in US dollars has fallen from US$4.86bn to US$4.45bn, and then to US$3.70bn on October 9 before rising on Monday.
"The outlook is complicated. Many raw materials are valued in US dollars. In Mexico, large infrastructure projects are also valued in this currency. This is done for convenience because not all construction materials get this treatment," he said.
"Only when the exchange rate stabilizes will we be able to determine the magnitude and nature of the impact," he added.
PNI
The global financial crisis has also prompted the transport and communications ministry (SCT) to postpone two key PNI projects.
On October 3, it announced the deadline to award Punta Colonet from was pushed back from August 31 to December 18, 2009. At the same time, the date to sign concession contracts was modified from November 3, 2009 to February 10, 2010.
Previously, on September 30, SCT said the tender call for the concession to build and operate the new Riviera Maya international airport, in Quintana Roo state, was postponed until global financial markets stabilize.
The announcements came amid calls from industrial sectors urging the federal government to implement measures to accelerate infrastructure investment.
"I believe it will be a while until the PNI takes off, although there is potential to accelerate projects whose investment comes directly from the government," Hermosillo said.
"However, a large portion of the PNI is made up of private investment. Some sectors pressuring the government are not aware of this, except for the construction sector," he added.
The analyst also said the construction sector is applauding SCT's decision to delay the tender calls for several large projects, as the uncertainty in securing funds affects their operations.
