Contents

Introduction

In 2015 and 2016, Brazil was mired in a recession that affected federal and state budgets and investments in crucial areas such as infrastructure. This led to the scrapping of numerous projects.

For the next few years, we project that the fiscal scenario will continue to suffer difficulties, in addition to a more adverse global atmosphere which will impact financing and the race to attract investors.

Meanwhile, due to corruption scandals and economic difficulties, a disenchanted citizenry could turn to candidates who do not belong to traditional political parties in October elections, adding to the uncertain atmosphere.

The latest polls indicate that far-right legislator Jair Bolsonaro and the ex-environment minister and ecologist, Marina Silva, are the favorites. However, that could change if former president Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva were allowed to compete - a scenario that now seems impossible. In late August, Brazil's top electoral court determined that Lula, who is currently serving a prison term for corruption, will not be eligible in the October general election.

Also in competition with Bolsonaro and Silva, are the Social Democrat Geraldo Alckmin, the four-time governor of the state of São Paulo (representative of the centrist PSDB), and leftist Ciro Gomes, of the Labor Democratic Party (PDT).

Although the four main candidates have not outlined specific transport infrastructure and logistics projects, they have each outlined institutional reforms to give way to investment and overcome the current paralysis of the sector.

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