As Raúl Castro steps down, his successor must address Cuban concerns

Cuba's national assembly convened Wednesday to decide on a successor to President Raúl Castro, who steps down Thursday, ending six decades of rule under the Castro name, though the legacy of his brother Fidel's revolution is alive and well.

By all indications, the next president will be current vice president Miguel Díaz-Canel (57), a dyed-in-the-wool member of the nation's communist party (PCC), the only party legally permitted to exist on the island nation.

In a statement ahead of Thursday's changeover, human rights advocacy organization Amnesty International said, "The government must not squander this opportunity to usher in a new era of respect for human rights."

Detractors, however, see little chance for substantive change in the political rights of Cubans, while economists express concerns that continued statist policies, especially with the recent cooling of US-Cuban relations under Donald Trump, are likely to produce only further economic stagnation.

"There will be a sense of renewal and there will be a sense of continuity," said foreign minister Bruno Rodriguez, another of the government's political heavyweights, in recent remarks.

Not yet out of the picture, Raúl Castro is still set to lead the PCC until 2021, during which time he can guarantee a controlled transition in the face of the multiple challenges that may arise.

Cuban political scientist Esteban Morales sees Castro's focus moving forward being on upholding the ideology of the revolution.

"I think that Raúl is simply going to concentrate on that, with the forces he still has, while Díaz-Canel is going to concentrate on governance, on tasks that are very complex and difficult," he was quoted as saying by AFP.

He explained that the successor would work to further "update" the Soviet-style economic model at a time when Cuba faces the weakening of its ally Venezuela.

That thinking, however, casts a shadow over Cuba's economic future, as posited in the February report "Cuba's Economy After Raúl Castro: A Tale of Three Worlds" by Richard E. Feinberg, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute's Latin American Initiative.

"Even if we accept the official statistics, the performance of the economy has been very disappointing," said Feinberg. "During the decade of Raúl Castro's rule, average GDP growth registered 2.4% per year, with a tendency toward stagnation at 2% per annum. As government officials have recognized, this is less than half of the minimum of 5% annual growth necessary for Cuba to attain a sustainable growth path. This chronic stagnation was widespread throughout the state economy."

"Just as distressing have been the extraordinarily low rates of national savings and investment, at around 10% of GDP, half of the Latin American and Caribbean average of over 20%," added Feinberg. "Cuba's capital stock continues to deteriorate, contributing to chronic breakdowns, delivery delays, shortages, and shoddy merchandise."

"The most powerful explanation for the resistance of the state economy to reform is the most obvious one: Cuba remains a hyper-centralized state where all power concentrates at the very top of the decision-making pyramid," he argued.

"Executives at state-owned enterprises are accustomed to receiving detailed annual instructions for managing their enterprises. They are neither accustomed to taking initiative nor sufficiently rewarded for doing so," said Feinberg. "Every foreign investment, even at the supposedly more streamlined Mariel economic development zone [ZEDMariel], has required the sign-off of the Council of Ministers, and often, it seemed, of Raúl himself."

He concluded, "The new administration in Havana may prefer to move gradually, initially to focus perhaps on monetary reform and on a limited list of low-hanging fruit, as it consolidates its own political position. Even so, it could begin to enunciate its medium-term strategy, to give the population some confidence that a more prosperous future awaits."

Pictured: Raúl Castro (L) speaks with Miguel Díaz-Canel (R) at a parliamentary event in 2016.