Ecuador election headed to run-off
Ecuador will have to wait until an April 2 run-off election to pick a new president, as ruling party candidate Lenin Moreno (pictured) could not seal a first round victory over the weekend.
With 95.5% of votes tallied, Moreno leads with 39.23% of the votes, followed by ex-banker Guillermo Lasso of the center-right CREO-SUMA alliance with 28.33%, according to electoral council CNE, whose president Juan Pablo Pozo told reporters on Tuesday that a run-off is all but unavoidable.
Moreno needs 40% or more of the votes and a 10-percentage point lead to win in the first round. The final results are expected on Wednesday.
MACRO OUTLOOK
Ecuador's central bank said in early September that the country's US$70bn economy would contract 1.7% in 2016. Even before the earthquake hit, the country was struggling to meet its investment goals due to lower oil prices. Ecuador depends on crude oil for about half of its national budget.
Between 2006 and 2014, Ecuador's GDP growth averaged 4.3%, driven by high oil prices and significant external financing.
The strong growth during those years enabled higher social spending and large-scale investments, especially in the energy and transportation sectors.
Growth slowed sharply to 0.20% in 2015 due to the end of the oil price boom and the strong appreciation of the US dollar. The dollar has been Ecuador's currency since the year 2000 and appreciation makes its non-oil exports less competitive on world markets.
Dollarization also means that the country cannot turn to monetary policy to better cope with economic slumps.
JP Morgan issued forecasts that expec the Ecuadorian economy to shrink 1.8% this year and return to growth of 1.0% in 2017.
The US investment bank said that the contraction in 2016 will be less than initially expected due to the recovery in oil prices and the stabilization of oil production at higher levels. A boost will also come from earthquake reconstruction-related investment while new external lending will provide support for government spending.
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