LatAm's bumper election year: All eyes on Colombia
The focus of the political soap opera playing out across Latin America this year shifts back to Colombia on Sunday when voters choose their next president.
In the runoff, Colombians must pick between right-wing candidate Iván Duque (pictured on the right), who has been leading in the polls, and leftist rival Gustavo Petro.
Moody's forecasts no major policy upheavals whoever lands the nation's top job.
"Given the center-right majority in Congress, Colombia's public policy priorities are unlikely to experience a significant shift regardless of who wins the country's president election," the agency said. "Moody's expects that the incoming administration will continue to adhere broadly to market-friendly macroeconomic policies that have defined Colombia in recent years."
In the first round, held in May, Duque, representing the Centro Democrático party of former president Álvaro Uribe, received 39.1% of the vote while Colombia Humana's Petro took 25.1%.
Colombia is among six countries in the region choosing new presidents new this year. Costa Rica, Paraguay, and Venezuela have already had theirs, choosing center-left, center-right and leftist candidates, respectively.
After Colombia its Mexico's turn. On July 1, voters head to the polls, with leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO as he is better known, looking the favorite.
The closest competitor of the former Mexico City mayor is Ricardo Anaya, who is backed by an unusual coalition of Mexico's traditional conservative party (PAN) and liberal party (PRD). Other contenders are ruling party (PRI) candidate José Antonio Meade and independent candidate Jaime "El Bronco" Rodríguez Calderón.
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In October the focus shifts to Brazil, where a large question mark hangs over who will be the country's next leader after former president, leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, was jailed for corruption. Lula was seen as the favorite. Political parties officially nominate their candidates in mid-August, when the campaigns start in earnest and launch radio and TV ads. Recent surveys show that centrist candidates are struggling to gain ground, while more radical right-wing and left-wing candidates appear as frontrunners.
COLOMBIA
The presidential election is the first since the 2016 peace deal between the government and FARC rebels, which ended Latin America's longest and bloodiest armed conflict.
Duque has opposed key aspects of the accord that he claims are too lenient on ex-combatants. Meanwhile former Bogotá mayor Petro has vowed to maintain concessions to ex-guerrillas, warning that any changes would "tear the peace agreement into pieces."
Duque's pro-business agenda includes plans to cut corporate taxes and create new incentives for oil and mining companies. Petro says he will reduce the country's dependence on extractive industries, raise farming subsidies and ramp up investment in renewable energy.
Political centrist Juan Manuel Santos is the incumbent.
Whoever wins will inherit a sluggish but improving economy.
"Growth averaged just 2.3% over the past three years, a sharp slowdown from the 4.8% average annual rate registered over the previous upcycle between 2010 and 2014," Moody's said.
The agency forecasts growth to accelerate to 2.6% this year and 3.0% in 2019, spurred on by falling inflation and interest rates and stronger consumption.
This slower growth will hamper fiscal consolidation efforts, it said.
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