MACRO WATCH: Brazilian inflation, BBVA cuts Peru growth forecast

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Thursday, April 20, 2017

Brazil's IPCA-15

The IPCA-15 mid-month consumer price index climbed 0.21% in April compared to the 0.15% reported for March. This was the lowest figure on record for April, according to statistics agency IBGE.

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The result came below the average 0.27% expected by 23 analysts consulted in the Valor Data survey.

Cumulative 12-month inflation thus declined to 4.41% from 4.73% in March, which was the lowest 12-month figure since January 2010.

Cumulative inflation in January-April reached 1.22% compared to 3.32% in the same period of 2016.

BBVA cuts Peru GDP growth projection

BBVA Research, the economic analysis unit of Spanish financial group BBVA, cut its GDP growth projection for Peru in 2017 to 2.5%, down a full percentage point from the previous 3.5% forecast.

However, BBVA raised its projection for 2018 to 3.9% from the 3.6% it had previously estimated.

The reduction was made due to delays in the construction of infrastructure projects, further damage caused by the Coastal El Niño weather phenomenon and the deterioration of business confidence, which is now in the "pessimistic" zone, according to a BBVA Research report cited by local daily Gestión.

BBVA also estimates that the country's fiscal deficit will reach 3% of GDP in 2017 and 2018, compared to 2.6% in 2016, which is above the government's targets of 2.5% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018.