Colombia forecasts gas price jump for power generation

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Thursday, November 27, 2014

Natural gas prices for Colombian thermoelectric generation in the next five years are forecast to increase 20-40%, depending on the plant.

In its 2014-37 power generation feedstock price projection, mining and energy planning unit UPME estimates the reference gas price in January 2020 will range from US$5.034/MBTU to US$10.206/MBTU, compared with US$2.996-8.168/MBTU in January 2014.

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Gas-fired plants account for approximately 20% of the country's 14.6GW capacity.

Hydropower represents close to 68% and other fossil-fueled plants, wind farms and co-generators make up the balance.

A separate UPME document forecasts total gas consumption in an average scenario at 1,272GBTU (996GBTU without thermo plants) compared with this year's expected 1,011GBTU (766GBTU).

Out of 103 power generation projects for a combined 4.97GW registered in Colombia, eight are thermo projects for a total of 858MW.

The country's 2013-27 generation and transmission reference expansion plan envisions the addition of two 250MW gas-fired plants.