Political Risk

Definitions

Projects covered include state-owned and private projects in the Infrastructure, Electric Power, Oil & Gas (excluding upstream), Water and Waste, and Mining sectors.

Where applicable, a project is considered as such until the end of construction and ramp-up to full capacity (with the exception of mining projects, where the date of commissioning signifies the end of the project). Projects must have a:

a) Start date
b) Estimate for completion
c) Initial investment estimate

Data

For state-owned projects, initial information about the start date and estimates for completion and investment are taken from original signed contracts, along with addendums and annexes.

If original contracts cannot be obtained, information is taken from public documents, presentations, news articles from BNamericas archives, and external sources.

In cases where contracts are subject to approval by legislators, the start date is the date of the law or legislative approval.

In the case of private projects, information is taken from public sources, such as stock exchange filings, annual reports, company presentations, third party research and press releases.

In judging the timing of investment decisions for private projects, great care was taken to differentiate between large projects receiving environmental approval and proceeding directly to construction, and smaller projects where the investment decision hinges on securing financing.

Best care is taken to ensure that recorded data is correct at the time of entry and that each entry is backed with a relevant source.

The greatest care possible was taken to ensure consistency of information in order make a like-for-like comparison in project costs. Insofar as the figures rely on disclosure by the organization or company responsible, the figures can be considered to be conservative in nature.

No attempt was made to adjust figures for inflation during the course of research or for consideration of the time value of money.

Validation

In the case of state-owned projects, validation is carried out where possible with either a member of the consortium, EPC contractor, a relevant state agency or advisors to either party.

Currency

Projects costs are measured in US dollars. Where project costs are measured in a local currency, amounts are converted to US dollars at the date of the relevant announcement, signature or report.

Severity of deviation from original estimates

The severity of deviation from original estimates is defined according to set criteria.

Timing

Budget

Changes in Scope

Changes in scope beyond the start date are not accounted for.

Language definitions

Where guidance is non-specific as to dates for completion, the following is used.
Project to be completed by 2018 = December 31, 2017
Project to be completed in 2018 = December 31, 2018