Argentina forecast to reach Chile’s lithium output by 2030

Chile’s copper commission Cochilco forecast that by the end of the decade Argentina will reach Chile’s lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) production of 238,000t, while the latter’s global market share is expected to fall to 15% from 32%. 

In a report, the agency predicted that global demand for LCE will reach 2.1Mt in 2030 from 327,000t in 2020 due to increased demand for batteries for electric vehicles. 

“We anticipate that the electric vehicle segment will go from representing 41% of lithium consumption in 2020 to 73% in 2030,” the report reads. 

According to Cochilco, by 2027 global lithium supply will not be enough to meet demand. 

Earlier this week, mining and energy minister, Juan Carlos Jobet, said that Chile's lithium market share is in danger of falling 46% to 17% if there are no new projects by 2030.

However, Cochilco says that more transparency regarding market prices will contribute to boosting new projects. 

“It is foreseeable that stock exchanges and the lithium industry will continue to go forward and make contract prices visible as well as agreeing instruments that allow price monitoring backed by a greater volume of transactions,” the report says. 

“This greater transparency can encourage more investment to carry out projects.”

Cochilco says Australia, which is the main global producer, is expected to produce 415,000t in 2030, up from 174,000t in 2020. The report also highlights that Canada, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Mexico will become important producers by the end of the decade. 

By then, LCE will account for 44% of total lithium demand, down from 67% in 2020, while lithium hydroxide’s share will increase to 56% from 28%, the report says.