Bolivia to experience ‘significant’ dip in gas export price

The IMF has forecast a significant decline in the price of Bolivia’s natural gas exports in the second half of 2020.

“[Natural gas] prices adjust partially to reflect changes in global oil prices with a lag of two quarters,” the multilateral said in its latest country report for the Andean nation.

The IMF expects Bolivia’s terms of trade to deteriorate 12.7% by year-end, “moderately worse” than previous guidance, with total exports now projected to be 1.5% of GDP lower in 2020 than had been expected under the pre-COVID-19 baseline.

Source: Bolivia foreign trade institute IBCE

The latest metrics from Bolivia’s hydrocarbons ministry reveal that the average gas export price in January-February (preliminary data) to Brazil (GSA) and Argentina (Enarsa) was US$4.9592/MMBTU (million British thermal units) and US$6.3824/MMBTU, respectively, compared with US$5.5266/MMBTU and US$6.7155/MMBTU for all of 2019.

The following table shows the gas export price for the first four months of 2020 that includes Base Contractual Daily Amount (QDCB) and Additional Contractual Daily Amount (QDCA) pricing.

Source: Bolivia hydrocarbons ministry

Also Read At a Glance: Bolivia’s two-front battle to save natural gas exports

Photo credit: YPFB Transporte