Silver set for further falls on investor sell-off

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Silver is likely to fall back to US$15.50/oz on investor selling, according to ABN AMRO.

A string of factors are likely to weigh on prices of the metal, including expectations of lower gold prices, modest US dollar upside and a December interest rate hike, coupled with a Hillary Clinton US election victory, the bank said.

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Silver's technical outlook is forecast to turn negative, with only a small amount of investor positions having closed since September 27, despite prices falling from US$19-20/oz to the US$17-18/oz range currently.

"Therefore, we think that there is further position liquidation to go. It is likely that a move back to the average amount of contracts in the futures market is on the cards, implying that silver prices could drop to US$15.50/oz," the Dutch bank said.

As a result, ABN AMRO cut its end-2016 price forecast for silver to US$16.50/oz from US$19.50/oz, with the metal expected to rise to US$17.50/oz at end-2017, down from US$24/oz previously forecast.

The bank previously cut gold price forecasts.


Silver closed 15 cents higher at US$17.59/oz in London, with gold up US$4.55 at US$1,261.05/oz.

The improvements came despite minutes showing divided opinion among members of the Federal Open Market Committee over interest rates in its September meeting.

Three members voted in favor of a rate hike at the meeting, in light of improving labor and economic growth.

"Among the participants who supported awaiting further evidence of continued progress toward the committee's objectives, several stated that the decision at this meeting was a close call," the minutes said.

Higher US interest rates are negative for gold.