Mexico’s top gold miners heading for 2020 output slump

Mexico’s top 10 gold miners produced 709,332oz in Q1 – before COVID-19 suspensions hit operations.

Output was up from 596,525oz in the same quarter last year, when figures from Newmont’s Peñasquito mine were not available.

The asset – Mexico’s biggest gold producer in Q1 – was acquired in Newmont’s merger with Goldcorp in April 2019.

The Q1 total falls just short of original 2020 forecasts of 3.03Moz, based on midpoint guidance and BNamericas estimates for the 10, equating to around 757,000oz per quarter.

Equinox Gold was excluded as it did not release Q1 production data for the Los Filos mine, acquired in the Leagold Mining merger which concluded in March.

Los Filos is expected to produce 170,000-190,000oz gold this year (figures are post-merger).

Overall production by the 10 is set for a Q2 slump, as lockdown measures saw nearly all mines suspended from the start of April.

Mining was deemed essential earlier in May. Recent guidelines outlined health protocols companies must implement in order to resume operations in late May or early June.

TOP FIVE

1. Industrias Peñoles. Q1 gold production: 207,384oz

Gold output slipped from 220,324oz in 1Q19, reflecting a 6.7% decline in production from assets run by precious metals subsidiary Fresnillo, at 196,963oz.

Fresnillo’s Q1 output was trending below the 2020 forecast of 815,000-900,000oz gold. Guidance is under review, the company said in April.

Fresnillo and Peñoles are reported to have secured an exemption to the COVID-19 suspensions, although the companies have not confirmed this.

2. Newmont: 116,000oz

Peñasquito produced 116,000oz gold in Q1, compared to original 2020 guidance of 575,000oz.

Newmont revised down companywide production forecasts by 400,000oz to 5.90Moz in May, but did not issue figures for individual operations.

3. Torex Gold: 108,537oz

Production at Torex’ El Limón-Guajes mine increased from 77,870oz in 1Q19 but remains slightly behind original guidance – since withdrawn - of around 450,000oz.

4. Agnico Eagle Mines: 74,420oz

Agnico saw output slip from 79,247oz at its trio of Mexican mines, but production is tracking ahead of original guidance of 275,000oz.

5. Alamos Gold: 43,300oz

Production declined from 44,700oz at Alamos’ Mulatos and El Chanate mines, with the original 2020 forecast at 159,000oz.

THE REST

Argonaut Gold produced 39,619oz gold, down from 52,343oz and compared to original 2020 forecasts of 180,000oz, with output by First Majestic Silver broadly stable at 32,202oz.

Original 2020 guidance was 120,000oz.

Coeur Mining produced 31,578oz gold at its Palmarejo operation in Q1, up from 23,205oz and compared to original 2020 forecasts of 102,500oz.

Pan American Silver ranked ninth in the list at 28,200oz, down from 31,000oz, with original guidance at 143,250oz.

Minera Frisco produced 28,092oz, down from 35,799oz. Frisco does not issue production guidance, with BNamericas originally forecasting 128,637oz gold for 2020 – the amount produced last year.

OUTLOOK

While gold production by Mexico’s top 10 miners tracked behind guidance in Q1, a far bigger blow is expected for the current quarter.

The vast bulk of operations will be hit by around a two-month suspension, assuming mining resumes around June 1.

Output is likely to remain below normal levels for a few weeks after that date as operations ramp back up to full capacity.

COVID-19 health protocols – which are likely to require a reduction in onsite personnel – could also impact production for months to come.