AMLO party heads into Mexico midterms with strong voter support

A new poll ahead of Mexico’s midterm elections shows Morena, the leftist party of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), holding onto strong support in the race to seat the entire lower house.

The June 6 elections will mark the first time that the 500 lower house members are allowed to stand for re-election.

The nationwide poll conducted by local daily El Financiero showed that 40% of respondents said they intended to vote for Morena, four percentage points fewer than in its February poll, but nearly 30 percentage points ahead of the closest contender.

El Financiero interviewed 1,000 adults for the survey, conducted on March 12-13 and 26-27.

The center-right PAN party came in second with 11% of voter intention, followed by the centrist PRI (10%) and center-left PRD (3%).

Source: El Financiero

Of the three opposition parties, only PAN gained some ground since the February poll, picking up a percentage point. Those answering “don’t know” or none of the above, however, dropped to 27% from 29%, suggesting the undecided vote is narrowing. 

Morena holds a narrow majority in the lower house with 256 seats, though it usually has the support of three smaller parties that hold another 78 seats.  

A large win would not only give AMLO a strong affirmation of his policy agenda but also make it easier to push through more controversial reforms that may face some resistance from within Morena or its allies. 

Such legislation might include efforts to rewrite the rules of the game for the energy sector, perhaps going as far as to repeal the structural reforms to the oil and gas and electric power industries that were introduced during the previous administration.

The survey also polled respondents on support for the president with 61% approving of AMLO’s job performance, down from 63% in February.