Brazil analysts again lower 2016 key rate forecast

Bnamericas Published: Monday, February 01, 2016
Brazil analysts again lower 2016 key rate forecast

Analysts surveyed for the Brazilian central bank's latest weekly report again revised down their 2016 forecast for the benchmark Selic rate.

This time it went down to 14.25%, the same rate the monetary policy committee decided to keep in late January.

Last week's key interest rate prediction was 14.64% and last month's was 15.25%. For 2017, the forecast was maintained at 12.75%.

Projections for inflation continue to rise, with the 2016 CPI now expected to reach 7.26% compared to 7.23% a week ago and 6.87% a month prior. Analysts' full year inflation prediction for 2017 increased to 5.80%, up from 5.65% the week before and 5.20% a month ago.

Brazil's CPI was 9.01% last year.


The 2016 GDP forecast dipped slightly to a 3.01% contraction, compared to contractions of 3.00% and 2.95% that were forecast a week and a month ago. For 2017, analysts expect growth of 0.70% compared to 0.80% last week and 1.00% last month. Brazil's GDP shrunk by a record 4.5% year-on-year y in 3Q15.

The analysts see the exchange rate appreciating this year to 4.35 reais per US dollar, up from last week's forecast of 4.30 reais and 4.21 reais a month ago. Projections for 2017 remained stable at 4.40 reais per US dollar.

The same analysts expect Brazil's 2016 trade surplus to be US$37.9bn compared to the previous week's forecast of US$37.5bn and US$35.0bn the month before. For 2017, the forecast was unchanged at US$40.0bn.


4TH Mexico Electric Power Summit

Click here to see the agenda and speakers

5TH Mexico Infrastructure Summit

Click here to see the agenda and speakers

4TH Mexico Oil&Gas Summit

Click here to see the agenda and speakers

Subscribe to the most trusted business intelligence platform in Latin America. Let us show you our solutions for Suppliers, Contractors, Operators, Government, Legal, Financial and Insurance.

Subscribe to Latin America’s most trusted business intelligence platform.

Other projects

Get key information on thousands of projects in Latin America, from current stage, to capex, related companies, key contacts and more.

Other companies

Get key information on thousands of companies in Latin America, from projects, to contacts, shareholders, related news and more.

  • Company: Empresa Construtora Brasil S.A.  (ECB)
  • Empresa Construtora Brasil S.A. (ECB) works on engineering and construction of projects on road, railway, urban, industrial, port and airport, civil and mining infrastructure, n...
  • Company: Mercantil Commodity S.A.C.
  • Mercantil Commodity S.A.C./Mercantil S.A. has 35 years of experience in distribution of sodium cyanide in Peru and Latin America. The company was the first in Peru to work under...
  • Company: Ingersoll Rand, Inc.  (Ingersoll Rand)
  • Ingersoll Rand is a diversified global company that manufactures flow control products. Through different brands, the company offers air compressors, oil-free compressors, oil-i...
  • Company: United Telecommunication Services N.V.  (UTS)
  • United Telecommunication Services N.V. (UTS) is a parent company founded in 1999 which operates telecommunication firms in the Caribbean; offering mobile services which include ...
  • Company: Clariant AG  (Clariant)
  • Clariant AG is a Swiss-based specialty chemical company focused on energy efficiency, renewable raw materials, emission-free mobility and conserving finite resources. Its four b...
  • Company: Liberty Insurance Underwriters, Inc.  (LIU)
  • Liberty International Underwriters (LIU) is an American insurance company that provides products, adapted for each client, including casualties, specialty casualties, crisis man...