LatAm online retail growth to slow until 2018 - eMarketer

Growth in Latin America's online retail sales will gradually slow from 2015 to 2018, with a rebound in 2019, online consultancy eMarketer forecasts.

Worldwide, retail e-commerce sales are expected to reach US$1.67tn in 2015, accounting for 7.4% of total retail spending, while by 2019, digital channels will more than double, reaching US$3.57tn.

In Latin America, online retail purchases are predicted to top US$41bn this year, up 22.9% from 2014, and representing 2.2% of total retail transactions.

In 2014, retail e-commerce grew 26% to 1.9% of total retail sales, and in 2018, retail e-commerce sales growth is estimated to decline to 15.3%.

eMarketer attributes the region's sputtering growth partially to the slowdown in Brazil, which is Latin America's largest retail market.

Even so, Brazilian online retail sales are forecast to reach nearly US$20bn this year, up from US$16.9bn in 2014, almost half of the US$41bn total for the region.

Mexican online retail is seen growing to US$5.7bn, from US$4.4bn in 2014, and reaching US$5bn in Argentina compared to US$3.55bn last year.

According to eMarketer, retail sales growth rates in Brazil will decline until there is a slight rebound in 2018, while gains in retail sales are expected in Mexico as the country benefits from GDP growth, eMarketer wrote.

By 2019, Brazil's share of Latin American retail e-commerce will have declined to 37.5%, eMarketer forecast. Total online retail sales are expected to amount to US$80bn by that year.

"In general, there is considerable room for growth for retail ecommerce sales in Latin America, as the digital retail market represents a small fraction of total retail sales. Improvements made to e-commerce shipping and payment systems, along with expanding digital audiences, will help drive growth over the forecast period," said eMarketer.

ICT consultancy IDC estimates that e-commerce will generate US$68bn in Latin America in 2016 and US$100bn by 2019.