Brazil-Venezuela relations sink to new low on eve of presidential election

Relations between the presidents of Brazil and Venezuela have deteriorated rapidly in the run-up to Sunday’s elections in the latter country.

"Concerns about the political scenario in Venezuela are currently the main concern of the Brazilian government, due to the potential this electoral process has to destabilize the political scenario throughout South America," political analyst Lucas Fernandes from BMJ Consultores told BNamericas. 

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a traditional ally of his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolás Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chávez, has openly criticized Maduro over his threats regarding the presidential election.

In a recent press conference, Lula said he was "frightened" that Maduro had said that if he loses the election, there would be a bloodbath in Venezuela and urged him to respect the outcome of the vote, which could give him another six years in power.

Without mentioning Lula by name, Maduro responded that anyone who is scared should drink chamomile tea to calm down.

Maduro also said in a speech that elections in Brazil, which use electronic voting machines, are not audited.

That is a sensitive topic in Brazil. During the 2022 presidential election, then president Jair Bolsonaro, who was defeated by Lula, said multiple times that the electronic voting machines were not reliable. Experts have always refuted this claim, saying the ballot boxes are indeed audited and there were no signs of fraud.

Shortly after Maduro's speech, the head of Brazil’s electoral court, Carmen Lúcia, suspended a plan to send a technical team to monitor the elections in Venezuela.

"In view of false statements about Brazilian electronic voting machines, which, contrary to what Venezuelan authorities claim, are auditable and reliable, the superior electoral court will not send technicians in response to an invitation made by the national electoral commission of that country to monitor the election next Sunday," the electoral court said in a note.

"The Brazilian electoral court does not accept that, internally or externally, through statements or acts that are disrespectful to the fairness of the Brazilian electoral process, the seriousness and integrity of elections and electronic voting machines in Brazil are subject to lies," it added.

The presence of independent election observers is considered important, especially for countries that are under economic and trade sanctions, such as Venezuela.

"Brazil's recognition of the fairness of the electoral process in Venezuela has enormous influence on other countries also recognizing this process," said Fernandes. 

Lula and Maduro have previously not clashed, but relations became strained after Venezuela threatened to invade Guyana and annex the oil-rich Essequibo area.

Tensions in the area where international oil companies are operating are of concern for Brazil because they could destabilize the region and lead to military intervention by the US and the UK.

"Maduro used the Essequibo issue as a nationalist narrative during the election to try to attract votes. If the results of the elections show that he wins, but with a very narrow advantage that raises doubts, perhaps Maduro will use the Essequibo issue again to try to mobilize the people," said the BMJ analyst.

"If the opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, wins the election, then this issue of Essequibo will have to be abandoned because Urritia will have to adopt a more diplomatic and less tense stance to try to attract as much support as possible from international leaders, including from the US and Europe," said Fernandes.