How post-FARC violence will shape Colombia’s 2022 elections

A new wave of violence in Colombia will have a big influence on next year’s presidential elections, as coalitions are beginning to take form and the current administration is under fire for its handling of the surge in homicides and its perceived unwillingness to implement the 2016 peace agreement with the FARC guerrilla movement.

During last year alone, 91 massacres (homicides with three or more victims) took place in Colombia, leaving 381 dead, while so far this year 55 people have been killed in 14 massacres, according to peace development institute Indepaz. 

The situation is noticeably worse than when the agreement was signed, Alianza Verde (center) congresswoman Juanita Goebertus, who was part of the government’s delegation during the peace negotiations, told a webinar on the implementation of the accord held by the Harvard Center for Latin American Studies (DRCLAS).

“We now have a right-wing government that was elected under the premise of bringing security back and they haven’t done it,” Goebertus said, adding that “both center-left and center-right are in consensus that this government isn’t going to do much.”

She added that this attitude, combined with the COVID-19 pandemic, has led many political parties to start the electoral campaign early, such as senator and 2018 candidate Gustavo Petro, who is now working to set up a left-leaning coalition for both the presidential and legislative votes.

Goebertus also argued that President Iván Duque’s Centro Democrático party, which was originally opposed to the peace agreement, has been sloppy in the implementation of the pact, as so far it has only invested 1.89% of what was supposed to be spent per year on post conflict programs to develop rural areas, while on the legislative front 38% of bills related to the accord are stalled. 

The pandemic has now also exposed the lack of infrastructure in rural areas, as well as the void left after FARC demobilized that was not filled by local governments, but instead “criminal gangs that penetrate civil society” and are behind the recent violence.

Colombia will hold legislative elections on March 13, 2022, while the presidential vote will take place on May 29 next year, with a possible second round on June 19.