Falling Brazilian govt approval the result of weak grip on narrative, says analyst

Sliding approval ratings for Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appear to demonstrate that the government has difficulty in controlling the narrative.

A survey by CNT/MDA, conducted May 1-5 with 2,002 people and with an error margin of 2.2%, showed that 37.4% of respondents rate Lula's administration as good or excellent, 30.6% average and 30.5% bad or very bad.

In the last survey from January, 42.7% said it was good or excellent, 28.1% average and 27.9% bad or very bad.

“Lula's government is showing a loss of popularity in society. The government need to move forward with projects and actions that can boost the economy, reduce the feeling of a lack of security and improve public services,” Vander Costa, president of transport association CNT, which sponsored the survey, said in a statement.

Previous surveys by other pollsters also found that Lula’s popularity was falling.

The Labor Day celebrations on May 1 in São Paulo, where Lula spoke, attracted only a small crowd, unlike recent demonstrations supporting former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Analysts have struggled to explain why Lula’s ratings are deteriorating, as inflation remains relatively low, the labor market is robust and the economy expected to grow by around 2%.

"The current Lula administration is not managing to capture the elements behind a great social mobilization, as it was able to do in the past in the previous administrations between 2003 and 2010, where labor unions that support Lula played an important role in that mobilization," André Pereira César, a political analyst at Hold Consultoria, told BNamericas.

"Currently, right-wing political forces have managed much more effectively to capture the mechanisms of social mobilization that are no longer in union movements, but are on social media," added César.

The government is reacting, however. 

Amid the record floods in Rio Grande do Sul state, Lula created a federal representation in the state to manage the crisis and showcase government efforts.