Global lithium demand set to climb to 1.79Mt by 2030 – Cochilco

Global lithium demand will reach 1.79Mt/y by 2030, over four times more than the current 429,000t/y, mainly driven by electromobility applications, according to Chilean copper commission Cochilco. 

During a presentation on the perspectives for the lithium market over the next decade, Cochilco said that lithium demand associated with use for electric vehicles is expected to surge to 1.41Mt/y from the current 75,000t/y. 

Meanwhile, demand for compounds of the soft, white metal to be used in electronic devices and for power storage will climb to 377,000t/y from 242,000t/y now. 

“Lithium carbonate is consumed more at present, but by 2030 the main driver of lithium demand will be lithium hydroxide due to increasing use of batteries made of nickel, cobalt and manganese,” said Cochilco analyst Cinthya Roa.

Concerns regarding short driving ranges of electric vehicles have led manufacturers to start moving towards production of lithium-ion batteries with greater energy densities. This has sparked a shift towards lithium nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) or lithium nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA) compounds for cathodes, which use lithium hydroxide rather than the lithium carbonate used for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathodes. 

This trend means that, by 2030, lithium hydroxide will account for 57% of the market’s 1.7Mt/y lithium demand, with lithium carbonate supplying 42%. Last year, lithium carbonate demand reached 71% of the 323,000t needed, while hydroxide accounted for 24%, with the remainder provided in the form of other compounds or pure lithium metal. 

Last week, Jake Fraser, senior analyst at commodity research firm Roskill, said during a webinar that existing lithium production assets can cover most global demand during the next few years, but expansions and new projects will be required to meet the growing needs after 2024.

As regards lithium production, Cochilco predicts that Australia and Chile will remain the top global producers, but that increasing amounts of production will come from the US, Canada and Zimbabwe. By 2030, Australia’s share of global supply is forecast to dip from 48% to 31%, while Chile’s contribution will slip from 29% to 17%. 

Meanwhile, global lithium production will grow to 1.46Mt in 2030 from the 381,000t reached in 2019. 

Chile currently has two lithium producers, SQM and Charlotte-based Albemarle. 

SQM seeks to expand its current 70,000t/y lithium carbonate capacity to 120,000t/y next year and then to 160,000t/y by 2023, but also aims to raise its lithium hydroxide production capacity to 21,500t/y from the present 13,500t. 

Albemarle, which can currently produce 44,000t/y of lithium carbonate, plans to hike its capacity to more than 80,000t/y next year.

Among the challenges that the industry will face within the next decade, Cochilco listed water scarcity and protection of the salt flat ecosystems where these facilities exist in Chile, as well as community relations, increased lithium recovery from brines and investment in research and development to add value to the industry.