IEA sees Brazil's renewable growth slowing amid grid bottlenecks

Brazil will continue to lead the expansion of renewable energy sources in Latin America by 2030, installing about half of the new capacity in the period, according to a recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

However, projections for the country have been revised downward as curtailment – particularly in the Northeast region – and transmission bottlenecks are reducing project profitability, lengthening connection queues and extending project lead times.

The IEA projects that renewable electricity capacity additions in Brazil will decline in 2025 for the first time in five years, “as reduced net metering incentives slow growth.”

Installed solar and wind generation capacity in Brazil is approaching 40% of the total currently in operation, with around 97GW.

The national grid operator (ONS) projects that intermittent sources will account for approximately 47% of the installed electricity matrix in 2029 – a level close to that of hydro and thermal sources, which together will represent around 53% in that year, compared to the current 60.6%.

The growth of wind and especially solar generation has been creating instabilities in the National Interconnected System (SIN), resulting in an increase in curtailment cases.

Latam overview

According to the IEA, the Latin America and Caribbean region is expected to add almost 160GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, with solar PV accounting for most of this growth.

Source: IEA

Besides Brazil, the main contributors are Mexico and Chile, which will each provide roughly 15% of the region’s overall increase. Overall, the regional forecast has been revised down slightly, by about 3%.

Source: IEA

The IEA pointed out that slow grid expansion continues to pose a significant challenge across Latin America. In Brazil, the increasing deployment of variable renewable energy has caused lengthy connection queues, resulting in longer project development timelines. To address these issues, new transmission line tenders have been held. 

Similarly, delays in expanding transmission infrastructure in Colombia have lengthened project timelines as multiple renewable power projects await grid connection. 

Meanwhile, in Chile the grid has struggled to keep up with rapid variable renewable energy growth, leading to higher curtailment rates. 

(The original version of this content was written in English)