Mexico sees remittances surge in November with Trump win

Remittances from the US to Mexico soared to historic levels in November, as tensions surged in the US migrant community around the surprise presidential election victory of Donald Trump and the potential for stern new measures that could stem these flows.

Already on the rise ahead of the election, remittances to Mexico reached US$2.36bn in November, the highest total for the month since 2007, bringing the year's remittances to US$24.6bn in January to November, a 9.04% year-on-year increase and the highest level of remittances seen in a January-November period for 11 years.

The central bank data also indicated that there were 7.4mn remittance transactions in November, a 10% increase from October, with an average US$318 per transfer, up 13% month-on-month.

The depreciation of the peso in November consequently meant that households received more local currency.

Local newspaper El Economista cited Goldman Sachs Latin America analyst Alberto Ramos, who saw a 49.5% increase in annual income from remittances for families receiving them in Mexico.

Ramos added: "Many of the workers abroad may be bulking up these transfers strategically, anticipating possible restrictions or levies that could be applied to these transfers with the entry of the new [Donald Trump] administration."

The article cited comments from Bank of America and BBVA, suggesting the flow of remittances will continue to increase until policies on them are clarified under Trump's administration, which could be dire should he follow through on campaign-trail threats to cut into the flow.

Juan José Li Ng of BBVA, added that such a proposal could also require banks to verify the senders' migratory status, which could disrupt remittances from undocumented workers.