Brazil’s solar sector expected to reach new heights in 2025 despite challenges

Brazil’s solar energy sector is expected to continue growing strongly in 2025, despite increased import tariffs on photovoltaic modules.

Local solar power association Absolar predicts that the country will add 13.2GW of installed capacity this year, which would be 25% growth compared with 2024.

As a result, Brazil's total solar capacity is projected to reach 64.7GW, comprising 21.7GW from centralized generation projects and 43GW from distributed generation (DG).

Absolar estimates investments of approximately 39.4bn reais (US$6.5bn) in 2025.

Gilberto Camargos, executive director of solar inverter and battery manufacturer SolaX Power, pointed out that solar panel prices have dropped significantly in recent years.

“Even with the reduction of the ex-tariffs [a regime involving the temporary reduction of import taxes on certain products] and the imposition of a new import tax, the projects remain attractive,” he told BNamericas.

Rodrigo Sauaia, president of Absolar, warned that there will be challenges this year due to an unfavorable macroeconomic environment, the depreciation of the real and rising interest rates.

“Even amidst these turbulences, Brazil’s photovoltaic solar sector remains committed to the country’s sustainable energy transition. The growth of solar energy strengthens sustainability, eases household budgets and boosts the competitiveness of Brazil’s productive sectors – crucial drivers of the national economy and the country’s environmental commitments,” he stated in a press release.

Energy storage

For batteries, tariffs have increased by approximately 4% at the source (China), but prices continue to decline due to rising global demand and economies of scale, according to Camargos.

He predicts significant growth in Brazil’s energy storage market in 2025. A key factor is the expansion of the “flow inversion” phenomenon, which began in Minas Gerais and is now spreading to other states, causing blackouts.

Flow inversion occurs when energy generated by DG systems exceeds consumer demand or is restricted by grid limitations.

As this issue persists, Camargos anticipates a market shift toward hybrid systems.

“Once a battery storage system is implemented, injecting energy into the grid is no longer a problem. This system offers more autonomy so that people can generate their own energy and also store it, as well as greater security and independence from the utility company,” he said in a release.

Camargos projects that 2025 will be a milestone year for hybrid inverter and storage systems in Brazil, with growth rates of between 30% and 40%.

He also emphasized that extreme weather events have been driving market growth and are likely to continue doing so.

For instance, in October 2024, a five-day blackout in São Paulo affected millions of people. With the arrival of summer – a season typically marked by heavy storms – the frequency of blackouts across the country is expected to rise.

“It was the blackouts of 2023 that created opportunities to offer our products on the market. I believe this scenario will be repeated in 2025, with further opportunities arising from similar incidents,” Camargos said.