Panama protests could tilt elections toward ‘anti-systemic solutions’

Protests fueled by the approval of a new Cobre Panamá mining contract in October are rocking Panama, with likely consequences for the general elections next year.

"The mining contract has triggered social unrest that has gone beyond the mining issue. We cannot rule out that this exacerbated state – that could have spread due to the government’s lack of action – evolves to the voters seeking anti-systemic solutions,” Central American political analyst Eduardo Núñez told BNamericas.

“The paradox in the Panamanian case is that former president [Ricardo] Martinelli represents that option, and we are yet to see if this will strengthen his position.”

According to the latest polls, Martinelli and Martín Torrijos, also a former president, and Rómulo Roux, the head of center-right Cambio Democrático, lead the preferences. Current president Laurentino Cortizo is ineligible to run for a second term, but the candidate of his PRD party will vie for the top job with nine others.

Voters will cast ballots for president, vice president, lawmakers and local authorities on May 5.

Martinelli faces legal problems that could impede his candidacy, such as a 10-year prison sentence for money laundering and an investigation for corruption involving Brazilian company Odebrecht. His party, Realizando Metas, chose him as its presidential candidate even though he would have to exit the race if his sentence is confirmed.

Meanwhile, the protests entered a second stage, characterized by blockades, strikes and demonstrations that have claimed the lives of four protesters and saw 1,000 arrested.

The chamber of commerce said the protests have cost the country nearly US$1.7bn so far, while S&P said on November 8 that the downgrade of the credit outlook by the major rating agencies as a result of the controversy over the contracts risks damaging investor confidence.

“Without a doubt [the protests] could have an important effect. They will be a challenge for the PRD, as it has suffered important blows, including the exit of former president Martín Torrijos, who now runs for the Popular Party,” said Núñez. “The polls say that if Martinelli gets rid of his judicial issues and runs, he would win the election. Torrijos is in the second position.”