Haiti's crisis at risk of spreading through Caribbean

Crisis-hit Haiti is in bedlam, with heavily armed gangs attacking state and government institutions, police stations and hospitals, as well as blocking roads, leading to shortages of food and basic goods.

The surge in violence began on February 29 when gangs began a wave of attacks in capital Port-au-Prince, including assaulting two prisons and allowing an estimated 3,500 dangerous inmates to escape. 

The ongoing situation could also have serious implications for Haiti's neighbors, as well as ramifications for the Caribbean region as a whole. 

The attacks erupted while Prime Minister Ariel Henry was in Kenya negotiating a deal to establish a police support mission under the umbrella of the UN. However, the gangs have made it clear that they oppose this plan, with Jimmy “Barbecue” Cherizier, leader of the G9 gang alliance, warning that Haiti would be on course for civil war if Henry chose not to resign.

Henry has since been unable to return to the country, surfacing in Puerto Rico last week after the Dominican Republic denied him entry. In February, he also committed to holding elections no later than August 2025, which most Haitians consider being too far away.

Diplomats from the EU have abandoned the country and are now working from the Dominican Republic due to the chaos, which has also prompted the US to send security personnel to protect its embassy. 

According to the International Organization for Migration (OIM), the conflict has resulted in the domestic displacement of 362,000 people. A large number of people have also chosen to leave the country, which could put a strain on nations that lack the capacity to take in significant amounts of migrants, said Dominican-based political analyst Melvyn Pérez. 

“If the situation worsens and a considerable number of migrants cross into the Dominican Republic, the country can absorb them because we are relatively big compared with other Caricom members,” he told BNamericas. “But countries like the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas and Jamaica have no sufficient territory or population, and they're closer to Haiti by boat.” 

Another concern for neighboring countries is that the gang issue could potentially spawn similar violence within their borders should the diaspora continue, “as gang members could also be involved in it and they represent a threat,” said Pérez, although he admitted that this was an unlikely scenario. 

“However, that is the fear of the general public and politicians react to that,” he said. 

Some of those who might be benefitting from the continuing pandemonium in Haiti could include prominent businessmen, including Gilbert Bigio, the founder of conglomerate GB Group and the country's only billionaire, who has been accused of financing gangs.

The gangs previously operated in the form of private armies at the service of Haiti's elites, usually within the political context, but as no elections have been held since 2016, the gangs have sought to generate revenues elsewhere, largely through kidnap and extortion rackets, which have become commonplace.

Bigio was sanctioned in December 2022 by the Canadian government, which froze his assets, as well as those of the CEO of Deka Group, Reynold Deeb, and Haitian insurance businessman Sherif Abdallah.

Besides the risks to neighboring nations and the region from people fleeing Haiti, Pérez highlighted a third threat, with the chaos potentially facilitating the rise of a totalitarian figure like Guy Philippe, a former leader of a 2004 coup who has stated that he wants to be president.

“A heavy-hand approach can result in order, but order based on fear is not sustainable in the long term. I would prefer order to come from institutions and democratic consensus, something that is currently impossible in Haiti, where there are no legitimate voters in democratic processes,” Pérez said.

Philippe is back in Haiti after serving a six-year jail sentence in the US for laundering drug money. He was deported in November.

Philippe has claimed that he has no significant links to the gangs and is not involved in the violence. However, he said that he would offer an amnesty to gang leaders if he were to take power, the BBC reported.