Peru lowers energy offtake growth guidance

A review of power demand metrics for Peru reveals a downward trend, in line with reduced GDP growth forecasts, as the nation looks to put its political house in order and against the backdrop of a decelerating global economy.

According to grid operator COES’s latest medium-term report released this month, capacity and energy demand in 2020 are forecast to grow 2.7% and 4.6%, respectively, to 7,300MW and 55,847GWh.

The latest numbers are a further monthly sequential dip in growth guidance, which in July stood at 4.9% (7,457MW) and 6.0% (56,949GWh).

The ramp-up of projects in the mining sector – Peru’s principal electricity offtaker in the free market – will, however, place increasing pressure on the grid, particularly transmission, and whittle away at the country’s comfortable reserve margin.

Read Peru set to see US$7.3bn of mining projects start construction

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The outlook, which runs through September 2020, highlights that through the end of this year, the Callao biomass (2.4MW) and La Virgen hydro (84MW) plants are scheduled to enter service.

Next year’s planned generation additions are hydros 8 de Agosto (8.6MW), El Carmen (19.8MW) and Manta (19.8MW).

On the transmission front, the operator expects the 220kV Industriales-Los Sauces line to come online in the near term, along with new substations Medio Mundo (220/66kV) and Los Sauces (220/10kV), as well as the overhaul of the 220kV Puno substation.

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Also in Peru, the energy and mines ministry released results of an IDB electromobility financing study.

“The profitability of electric buses exceeds that of natural gas or diesel units with the application of a business promotion model, which grants a concession period of 14 years and includes preferential financing,” the ministry said in a statement.

The study revealed that the monthly average cost of energy and maintenance of an electric bus reaches 1,282 soles (US$351) and 1,724 soles, respectively, over 14 years, compared with 4,258 soles and 5,100 soles for gas and 7,382 soles and 3,290 soles for diesel.

The simulation includes 90% financing with a preferential annual rate of 7%, a 12-year term and a 36-month grace period.

The ministry, which expects to launch tenders for electric bus fleets in 2020, added that the study concluded that electric buses would save US$7.67bn in fuel in 2030 and that a fleet of 100 buses would cut CO2 emissions by up to 103,339t during 14 years – 87.7% less emissions than diesel buses and 89.1% less than gas buses.

Also Read Peru begins defining regulatory framework for electric vehicles and Minem opens dialogue on draft standard to promote electromobility