Power outages threaten support for Noboa ahead of Ecuador's referendum

Ecuador’s electricity crisis, with power cuts resuming on Wednesday due to low water levels in hydro reservoirs, could become a thorn in President Daniel Noboa's side and affect his support in this Sunday’s referendum.

According to local media reports, the reservoirs for hydroelectric plants are currently at record lows. The worst affected reservoir is Mazar, the largest in the country, which feeds three plants of state power company Celec.

The situation is of such magnitude that the electricity cuts in Quito from this Thursday to Saturday will be eight hours a day. In other cities the outages fluctuate between three and six hours, although in some areas longer blackouts have been reported.

The presidency's press office said Wednesday that there are indications that high-ranking officials at the energy and mines ministry, including former minister Andrea Arrobo, intentionally withheld information crucial to the functioning of the national grid.

The government filed a complaint with the prosecutor's office against 22 people for allegedly halting the power service, describing them as “saboteurs who sought to harm all Ecuadorans.”

On Thursday, in a television interview, communications secretary Roberto Izurieta said the it could have been an act of sabotage, claiming the Mazar reservoir had been emptied in recent days. “It's coordinated actions to create problems a week before the vote,” which are being investigated along with other incidents in recent days, he said.

What is clear is that the blackouts could affect Noboa, who, until a few days ago, enjoyed significant support for his handling of the government ahead of the plebiscite.

Power outages can impact the population's perception of the government, says Cristian Carpio, an analyst at political risk consulting firm Prófitas. It remains to be seen if, by Sunday, the population's discontent can be appeased or if it will grow. 

“There is going to be distrust among the population, which can turn into the rejection of some questions,” Carpio told BNamericas.

On Tuesday, Noboa announced that there would be no blackouts, but on Wednesday, the situation in the reservoirs forced rationing and the suspension of public and private activities on Thursday and Friday. According to Carpio, the situation affects the president's credibility.

On Sunday, voters must answer 11 questions related to security, justice, investment, and employment, including one that allows the armed forces to support the national police in the fight against organized crime. That involves reforming an article of the constitution proposed by former president Guillermo Lasso in 2022 and approved by the national assembly in December last year, but which still requires approval in the referendum.

According to the latest poll by Click Research between March 29 and April 1, around 66% of respondents said they would vote ‘yes’ in the referendum, but that could now change.

The power outages have increased uncertainty among Ecuadorans and damaged the president's image. The perception of his management may also be affected, which will influence Sunday's results, Francis Romero, director of Click Research, told BNamericas.

CRIME 

Added to the issue of blackouts is that of crime, which has increased in the last week and on Wednesday night, armed men murdered José Sánchez, mayor of the Camilo Ponce Enríquez canton, a mining area in Azuay province in southwest Ecuador.

The event echoed the murder of Ecuador's youngest mayor, Briggite García, 26, who was shot dead on March 24 in the coastal town of San Vicente.

“The instability that the country is experiencing makes public opinion very volatile. If there is no prompt solution to the electricity issue, this will harm the president because people judge the last thing they see and will forget all the previous work. In Ecuador, popular consultations are referendums on approval for the president,” says Romero.

For now, the most likely scenario, barring unforeseen events, is that Noboa will win some questions in the vote and lose others. Among those most likely to be lost could be approval of hourly work and allowing international arbitration in investment issues.

Experts do not rule out a terrorist attack and an increase in serious crime as a strategy to affect public opinion and influence the results of the referendum.