Tensions rise in Brazil ahead of Lula's swearing-in ceremony

Brazil’s security forces are on high alert ahead of the inauguration of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (pictured) as president on January 1.

Tension has increased in recent days amid the risk of attacks during the ceremony.

On Saturday, 54-year-old businessman George Washington de Oliveira Sousa was arrested in Brasília on suspicion of installing an explosive device in an access area to the capital’s international airport.

Police seized two shotguns, one rifle, two revolvers, three pistols, explosive emulsion, ammunition and camouflage uniforms from his apartment in Brasília.

Sousa told police he was planning a bomb attack in the capital, with no defined target, to try to promote the "beginning of a military intervention." He said he is a supporter of Brazil’s far right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro, who was defeated by the leftist Lula in the October runoff, and that he did not accept the election result.

"We are entering a new period in Brazilian politics, with the balance of forces, with different social groups that are fighting each other, and I don't see this coming to an end, even after Lula's inauguration. We will see an ultra-right opposition to Lula that has gained strength and ground in politics in recent years and with representatives in congress, which in fact is a certain novelty in the country," André Pereira Cesar, a political analyst at Hold Consultoria, told BNamericas.  

"These ultra-right groups may not be able to block the government's agenda in congress, but they will certainly be groups that will make a lot of noise during Lula's administration. It is a new moment in Brazilian political history," he added. 

During the elections, Bolsonaro said several times that he would not recognize the result if he lost, claiming that the electronic voting system was vulnerable to fraud.

Although Bolsonaro has not formally contested the election defeat, he has not recognized Lula’s win. Since the runoff, organized groups, mostly comprising retired military personnel, have been camping in front of army headquarters in São Paulo, Brasília and Rio de Janeiro, asking for military intervention.

"Currently there are extreme right forces in a state of constant mobilization, albeit virtual, in the country. These groups are likely to be a source of concern throughout the Lula administration, and if the economy deteriorates, it could serve to mobilize crowds in the streets, in addition to the risk of action by radicals, who were armed during the Bolsonaro administration," Mário Sérgio Lima, a senior political analyst at Medley Global Advisors, told BNamericas. 

Flavio Dino, the incoming minister of justice and public security, has been meeting with state governors in recent days asking for them to take steps to dismantle such protests.

Ceremony

Lula's inauguration ceremony in Brasília is expected to attract around 300,000 people, according to organizers.

Traditionally, the president-elect travels in an open car, but the federal police have had talks with Lula's personal security guards on the option of using an armored car.

In recent days, the police in the capital have been carrying out inspections in the capital to check for possible bombs.

Although urban and political violence has been widespread for decades, election winners and presidential candidates were not at high risk. They routinely shook hands in the streets, surrounded by supporters, without any extra protection.

Violence became a factor during the 2018 presidential campaign, when Bolsonaro was stabbed in Minas Gerais, forcing him to undergo emergency surgery. The perpetrator appeared to be mentally ill.

Polarization has increased since Bolsonaro assumed office in 2019, and the administration has made it easier for ordinary citizens to obtain guns.