Why Brazil's renewables sector can expect a bright 2023

Brazil’s 2023 renewable energy scenario looks very positive, considering global commitments made during the COP27 climate conference and the energy crisis aggravated by the war between Russia and Ukraine. 

That’s according to the president of Brazilian wind power association Abeeólica, Elbia Gannoum (pictured), who highlighted a strong influx of investments. 

“These investments will come from traditional companies, but also from companies in the oil and gas sector, focusing on the energy transition and investing mainly in offshore wind power,” she told BNamericas. 

She added, “if we want to reach the net-zero goal by 2050 we need to practically quadruple the speed of wind power installation globally, both onshore and offshore.”

A total of 10.3GW of power capacity is expected to begin commercial operations in Brazil in 2023, according to data from watchdog Aneel. 

More than 90% will be wind (4.9GW) and centralized solar (4.1GW) power, with the remaining capacity comprising thermoelectric (906MW), biomass (247MW) and hydro (139MW) plants.

Power installed capacity scheduled to start commercial operations. Source: Aneel 

Three Brazilian states account for about 80% of the capacity planned to come online this year: Bahia, with 3GW, Rio Grande do Norte (3.5GW) and Minas Gerais (1.8GW). 

About 70% of total installed capacity (7.2GW) has been contracted in the free (non-regulated) market. 

“Our perspective is to grow between 3GW and 4GW per year in the next few years. So Aneel's forecast is more or less in line with ours,” Gannoum said.

The wind power segment closed 2022 with around 25GW of installed capacity, 24.1GW in commercial operation and 1.5GW in testing. 

PV solar association Absolar projects that 10GW of solar capacity will be added in 2023, considering centralized (4.6GW) and distributed generation, with investments of more than 50bn reais. 

With this, national installed capacity is expected to reach 34GW, of which 21.6GW distributed and 13.4GW centralized.  

"We project a consistent growth of solar energy in 2023, driven by increases in electricity bills and by the benefits provided by the source to all Brazilian consumers," the president of Absolar’s board, Ronaldo Koloszuk, said in a statement.