Falling approval ratings could lead Lula to adopt populist measures

Public dissatisfaction with the Brazilian government's efforts to reduce inflation, high crime levels and poor administration of the health system have resulted in a downward trend in the approval ratings of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Political analysts are becoming concerned that the rapid drop in government approval could lead Lula to adopt populist short-term measures to boost his popularity.

Several polls in recent months have shown that approval of the government is on the wane, puzzling some analysts because efforts to control inflation have shown signs of working and the labor market is robust.

A poll of 2,000 voters from 129 municipalities between April 4 and 8 conducted by Ipec and published at the weekend by newspaper O Globo indicates that the public is not happy with the government in many areas.

Of the eight topics on which they were surveyed – education, combating hunger, environmental measures, international policy, health, crime, combating unemployment and controlling inflation – the government received more negative ratings than positive ones in seven of them.

The highest level of disapproval was seen in controlling inflation, crime and administration of health services, where Lula's government was rated as bad or very bad by 46%, 42% and 42% of respondents, respectively, with 23%, 27% and 29% viewing the administration's performance as good or excellent in those areas.

"The area of crime is a problem that has been going on for years and it's very difficult to solve because it involves a coordinated effort between the federal government and state governments. I think it's difficult for Lula to gain ground in that area," André Pereira César, a political analyst at Hold Consultoria, told BNamericas. 

"Regarding inflation, it's a really intriguing scenario, because Brazil doesn't suffer from problems with prices being out of control, but I see that as a risk, because Lula could try to adopt populist measures to try to improve his approval rating in this area," added César.

According to the analyst, populist measures that could be adopted could involve price controls in certain sectors, for example.

The only area in which the government received more positive ratings than negative ones was education, with 38% of respondents considering the administration to be good or excellent, and 31% viewing it as bad or very bad.

Although the second year of a federal administration traditionally suffers from falling approval levels, Lula remains concerned about his ratings, since his main political antagonist, previous president Jair Bolsonaro, continues to show he has the power to mobilize opposition to the government.

Over the weekend, thousands of backers responded to a call from the former president and held a demonstration of support for him at Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro, as well as protesting against the supreme court's investigations into Bolsonaro's efforts to overturn the result of the 2022 elections, in which he was defeated by Lula.

"The fact that Bolsonaro continues to be a political agent with strong power of mobilization worries Lula, looking ahead to the 2026 elections. Even though Bolsonaro can't run in the next election, with his great rallying capacity he could cause a lot of disruption to the electoral process," said César.

In 2023, the electoral court ruled that Bolsonaro will not be allowed to run as a candidate for public office until 2030 following a lawsuit filed by the democratic labor party (PDT) accusing Bolsonaro and Walter Braga Netto, his running mate for vice president in the 2022 election, of abuse of power and misuse of state-run media to undermine confidence in the country's voting system during a meeting with diplomats at the start of the election campaign.