Peru: Pressure grows to hold elections this year

In line with their growing disapproval ratings, pressure is growing on President Dina Boluarte and congress to agree to hold general elections this year.

Anti-government protests caused the first civilian death in Lima over the weekend, bringing the death toll to 65 since the protests began in December.

Meanwhile, roadblocks, airport seizures, and clashes between protesters and the police have paralyzed the operations of large, medium and small businesses.

Congress rejected on Friday a proposal to bring up elections to October, as the Boluarte government had requested. But lawmakers are expected to debate the proposal again given the severity of the crisis.

Three main pollsters – Ipsos, IEP and CPI – put Boluarte's disapprovals at over 70%. The CPI and IEP polls show that 88% of voters in the south of the country, which has led the protests, disapprove of her job. According to IEP, 74% want to see Boluarte resign, while CPI estimates that 63% want to see her step down. 

Congress is also in negative territory, with 89% disapproving of lawmakers, according to IEP.

The CPI polls shows that over 30% of voters believe Boluarte is responsible for the crisis, followed by congress (11%) and public officials (11%) like the police.

ANALYSIS

Given the current context of violence, blockades and repression, holding the elections in October seems to be the only way to mitigate the crisis.

Over 70% of the population is in favor of holding elections this year. Earlier in the month, 52% were in favor of moving the vote up this year, according to Ipsos.

Bringing the elections forward to April 2024, which was the first proposal considered, no longer seems advisable: only 20% of voters are in favor of that date. And according to CPI, almost no one (0.5%) is in favor of the government and congress remaining in power until 2026, the year in which Pedro Castillo's mandate and the parliamentary term would have ended.

Javier Albán, a constitutional lawyer and political analyst, says that general elections this year should be used to finish out the 2021-26 term. Otherwise, "it would imply electing officials with the same rules and political representations for the next five years. You are ensuring that the crisis is perpetuated," he tells BNamericas.

He recommends electing a new president and lawmakers to carry out a transition period from 2024 to 2026 marked by political reforms. "It's not a safe way out, but considering the circumstances, it could be an escape valve."

Whoever the candidates are, polls indicate that Peruvian voters are leaning in favor a center or center-right presidential option, after living through leftist Castillo's crisis-driven administration.  

CPI points out that – if elections were held today – 28% of the population would vote for a center candidate, while 23% would support a moderate right candidate. The percentage that would support a candidate from the moderate left is 13%.