Marginal cost in Dominican Republic forecast to fall 30% by 2027

The average marginal cost for the Dominican Republic is projected to reach US$93.5/MWh in 2027 from next year’s forecast of US$135.7/MWh.

The outlook is part of power grid coordinator OC’s preliminary 2024-27 operating report.

Natural gas is expected to lead generation in 2027, accounting for 51.3% of supply, followed by coal with 21.7%, solar 14.2%, wind 6.1%, hydro 2.4%, fuel oil 2.4% and biomass 1.9%.

In 2024, gas is forecast to represent 39.4% of electricity production, coal 39.7%, fuel oil 13.4%, solar 8%, wind 4.7%, hydro 3% and biomass 0.9%.

OC provides two scenarios for the addition of generation capacity, the first of which envisions an increase of 3,492MW and a second for 5,679MW, both led by solar.

The scenarios include projects with a definitive concession and/or projects declared by agents, with the difference that the second scenario includes projects with a provisional concession that have not been declared by agents.

Scenario 1

            Scenario 2

BNamericas is tracking over 70 power generation projects in the country that are in the early stage and under construction.

On the demand front, the report forecasts that consumption will increase 13% next year and 8.2% in 2025-27.

OC’s outlook is available in the Documents box in the top right corner.

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