Peru breaks energy demand pattern

Electricity use in Peru generally increases in March from February as activity resumes following the southern hemisphere summer vacation period.

The demand pattern, however, turned south this year which would indicate the impact of COVID-19 as the country locked down to contain the pandemic.

On March 6, the government announced the country’s first confirmed case of coronavirus and a state of emergency and 15-day mandatory quarantine were declared on March 16 that was later extended to April 12.

Information from grid coordinator COES shows that after five years of growth, consumption slid 6% sequentially in March and fell nearly 12% year-on-year.

A review of weekly COES numbers also reveals the substantial drop in power generation.

After production rose 3% the week of March 7-13 to 1.08TWh compared with the year-ago period, output in the weeks of March 14-20 and 21-27 fell 17% and 31%, respectively, to 867GW and 717GWh.

Previous guidance from the grid coordinator forecast a 4.8% increase to 56.2TWh in offtake for 2020.

In the three-week period, which falls within the rainy season, thermo generation – almost entirely fired by natural gas – fell 54% from a year ago, while production from hydro and renewables remained stable.

Gas-fired plants saw their contribution fall from 27% in the week of March 7-13 to 13.7% and 3% in the weeks of March 14-20 and 21-27. Hydro’s share rose from 64.4% to 74.6% and 82%.

Also Read Rainy season impacts gas dispatch to Peruvian generators

A macroeconomic expectations survey conducted by the country’s central bank (BCRP) shows that GDP growth projections this year range from -2.2 to 2.1%. In January, the IMF forecast growth of 3.2%, the same outlook provided in December by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.

Source: BCRP

Picture credit: COES