Renewables forecast to supply 80% of CentAm power

Renewable energy sources are expected to cover nearly 80% of demand in Central America in the short term.

That is according to regional grid Siepac operator EOR’s 2023-24 planning report, which highlights that hydro will lead the contribution with 51.4%.

The balance of renewables is projected to come from wind and solar (12.7%), biomass (7.8%) and geothermal (7.3%).

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The remainder of electricity will be provided by coal-fired plants (7.3%), natural gas (6.6%), oil (6.6%) and the interconnection between Guatemala and Mexico (1.6%).

Regarding natural gas, the outlook points to last year’s start-up of Energía del Pacífico’s 378MW Sonsonate project in El Salvador.

The report adds that “the number of projects expected to be incorporated into the system in the short term is also noteworthy, in which two other natural gas projects are taken into account (Puerto Sandino of 300MW in Nicaragua and Gatún of 656MW in Panama), as well as the 199MW El Tornillito hydroelectric plant in Honduras and complemented by another 24 projects with renewable resources that in total represent close to 500 additional MW for the system.”

Available supply at end December (Source: EOR)

Demand, meanwhile, is forecast to grow 4.8% this year and 4.5% in 2024, led by Panama with 7.99% and 8.48%.

The grid operator concludes that “the system has sufficient generation capacity to meet the demand requirements of the six countries in the region, likewise it is estimated that the transmission network conveniently supports the flows in the regional transmission network.”

EOR’s document, which includes fuel pricing and regional power market transactions, among other metrics, is available here.

Check out the over 100 power projects in the early stage and in construction that BNamericas is tracking in Central America as well as sector data for the sub-region.