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Political Risk Report: Saving Pemex

Bnamericas Published: Monday, July 22, 2019
Political Risk Report: Saving Pemex

The resignation of Mexico's finance minister blew the lid open on the internal power struggles within the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. In this edition of the Political Risk Report, we analyze the fallout from the surprise exit and the fight to manage Latin America's second-largest economy, as well as AMLO's efforts to bail out Pemex and return the national oil company to its good old days.

In Brazil, the critical pension reform being pushed by the government is set to be passed by the fourth quarter, after finally winning sufficient support in the lower house. Meanwhile, the Bolsonaro administration looks to privatize key energy assets to continue to shrink the state.

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Argentina's economy seems to be stabilizing, which helps President Macri's reelection prospects, while Colombia's peace process continues to face political hurdles. Peru has entered a dangerous dynamic of approving huge mining projects just as local communities are increasing their demands, while Chile's President Piñera continues to lose popular support as he fails to pass his main reform proposals through congress. 

In each of the following chapters you will find an analysis of the main developments that have led us to change, positively or negatively, the risk outlook for key sectors in each of the countries. Our color-coded risk scores are as follows:

Neutral outlook: no important events in that sector.

High risk

Low risk

 

JULY SCORECARD:


 

 

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