Trinidad provides hydrocarbons output forecast, updates renewable energy plans

Natural gas production in Trinidad and Tobago is projected to average 2.77Bf3/d (billion cubic feet per day) this year and 3.37Bf3/d in 2022, after which output will stabilize at 3.6Bf3/d. 

Finance minister Colm Imbert provided the outlook during his 2022 budget statement to lawmakers. 

By year-end, oil and condensate output is forecast to reach 64,000b/d and 86,000b/d in 2022, and then stabilizing at this level in the medium term. 

Latest energy ministry numbers show that average gas output in the first five months of 2021 averaged 2.735Bf3/d, and 58,972b/d for oil and condensate. 

Imbert highlighted upstream programs underway by BHP, BPTT, DeNovo, EOG, Shell and Touchstone Exploration, and plans to launch deep and shallow water rounds. 

In recent days, the energy ministry opened nominations for onshore acreage. 

To improve competitiveness, the minister said that together with the energy ministry a review of the oil and gas tax and fiscal regime would be carried out. 

The Energy Chamber of Trinidad and Tobago welcomed the planned review but pointed to areas where it believes immediate changes could unlock projects awaiting a final investment decision, such as the supplemental petroleum tax, flat royalty rate and VAT refunds. 

Nevertheless, the minister said, “we are committed to reducing our dependence on oil and subsequently gas in our drive to diversification.” 

Results from a study released by the country’s central bank on how climate-related disasters can affect the energy sector “highlight the heavy reliance that Trinidad and Tobago has placed on its energy sector, along with the high vulnerability to climate-related risks."

"In these contained scenarios where impact is limited to the energy sector, reductions in Trinidad and Tobago’s annual GDP growth were estimated to range from -1.2 to -15.5 per cent, while fiscal revenue deterioration is as much as -10.2 per cent," according to the study.

Imbert added that construction of the Couva (92.2MW) and Trincity (20MW) solar projects is expected to begin next year, and that a pipeline of renewable energy projects is being developed. 

In addition, the finance ministry’s 2022 public sector investment program includes funds for a preliminary wind assessment. 

Imbert also told legislators of the push to convert vehicles to compressed natural gas and the phasing out of subsidies for gasoline and diesel to improve energy efficiency, but “with appropriate safeguards for the vulnerable groups.” 

STATE ENTERPRISES 

As part of its 2022 budget plans, the finance ministry released a document detailing the investment program of state enterprises, including those in the energy sector. 

In the case of the National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago, projects range from distribution pipeline and related facilities to a potential pipeline with Grenada. 

Other state enterprises included in the document are National Energy Corporation of Trinidad and Tobago, Heritage Petroleum, Paria Fuel Trading, and Trinidad and Tobago Electricity Commission.