NEW REPORT - Political Risk: A Region in Crisis

The last months of 2019 will be remembered as turbulent times that led to momentous change in key countries. 

Rocked by violent protests that have left nearly two dozen people dead, Chile will rewrite a Constitution that was extremely favorable to the private sector, and was the last vestige of the country's 1973-1990 military dictatorship led by Augusto Pinochet, in an attempt to meet demonstrators' demands to create a more fair society. 

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Bolivia has been living through its own unrest that has led to a power vacuum after Evo Morales claimed victory in a disputed election in which he was seeking an unprecedented fourth presidential term. The once hugely popular leader was pushed out by the armed forces and sought exile in Mexico. In his wake, the country –and leaders across the region– remains divided. Will Bolivia continue to ride the tailwinds of an economy that has grown at rates of above 4% since 2010 without the driving force behind the expansion? Or will it go back to the political instability of the early 2000s, when successive presidents Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada and Carlos Mesa were forced to resign amid violent protests.

In this edition of the Political Risk report we also take a look at the new political opposition landscape in Brazil, where the charismatic former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is once again a free man and wasting no time in challenging right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro. Plus, Alberto Fernández gets ready to tackle Argentina’s gargantuan sovereign debt and fiscal challenges. 

In each country chapter you’ll get insights into the events that, for better or worse, have impacted the key sectors over the last month, and what to expect in the next few weeks.

Our color-coded risk scores are:

● Neutral outlook: neutral events, or no important events in that sector.

● High risk

● Low risk

NOVEMBER SCORECARD

Podcast

Chileans have been exploding in protest, much like Ecuadorans shortly before them, and mirroring global protests seen in Hong Kong, Barcelona and Paris. Brian Winter, policy VP at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas and editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly, talks about the economicreasons driving the upheaval, while Dr. Noam Lupu, associate director of the Latin American Public Opinion Project, warns of other Latin American countries where social discontent is also ripe for unrest.